Keynote Emile Chappin Dach+Energy Informatics 2022

This talk is on simulating complexity in the energy transition. Mitigating the adverse effects of climate change requires us, globally, to speed up the energy transition: to decarbonise energy supply while maintaining the security of supply and the affordability of energy services. More and more of the public will have to be involved in the energy transition in the coming years: the public will be affected directly by regional and local actions, e.g., through regional energy strategies and local initiatives (e.g., energy cooperatives). Energy behaviour takes place in the context of large, socio-technical systems. These systems provide the context, e.g., by affecting which options are available, the relevant decision criteria, perceptions about technologies. And when actual decisions are made, the same energy system change. Consumers may exchange information, perceptions, opinions and respond to each other’s observed behaviour. Consequently, depending on what specific decisions are made, and when, particular patterns in emergent behaviour come about and the energy system as a whole evolves. The question is how we may be able to anticipate how such behaviour (i.e., opinions, choices and using) of larger societal groups may promote or hamper progress in the energy transition. And, at the end of the day, how to affect those processes to robustly scale up, in order to contribute to a fair, inclusive energy transition.

Modelling is a key tool to study emergent properties of energy systems and can help to systematically explore possible future trajectories, including potential effects of energy policies, on local, regional, national, or global scales. This talk focuses on agent-based models which simulate social complexity as emergent phenomena arising on the basis of modelled decision rules of individual agents. The talk shows a number of recent studies capturing energy behavior of energy consumers and energy companies, and discuss ways forward.