The influence of individual hydrological processes on modelled discharge accuracy

During the July 2021 floodings in Limburg, it has become clear that the hydrological models of the Geul river did not perform well. This situation raised the need for better hydrological models that could be utilized for providing more precise flood predictions. The common-traditional way of comparing hydrological models is to see which model predicts the actual runoff the most accurate. However, how this runoff prediction is formed has gotten a lot less attention. In some cases, hydrological models might produce the right runoff but for the wrong reasons (i.e. equifinality). In this thesis, the behavior of individual processes within a hydrological model are investigated and compared with in-situ data about that process.

The final report can be downloaded here.