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Multihazard Risk Assessment and Cascading Failures

A variety of natural extreme events, including earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, river floods, winter storms, wildfires and coastal phenomena, threaten different regions of Europe. This leads to populations suffering losses not only from individual hazards, but also from multiple events that occur in combination. In both their occurrence and their consequences, different hazards are often causally related. Classes of interaction include triggered events, cascade effects and the rapid increase in vulnerability during successive hazards. Effective and efficient risk reduction, therefore, often needs to rest on a location-based synoptic view. Planners and policy-makers, and the scientists who inform their judgements, usually treat the hazards and risks related to such events separately from each other, neglecting interdependencies between the different types of phenomena, as well as the importance of risk comparability. Resolving this deficit will improve their ability to take risk reduction measures in a cost-effective way and in doing so, strengthen societies' resilience to natural disasters. Our group is currently involved in “Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather” ( RAIN ) project (2014–2016). It is aiming to provide an operational analysis framework that identifies critical infrastructure components impacted by extreme weather events and minimise the impact of these events on the EU infrastructure network. The project has a core focus on land based infrastructure with a much wider consideration of the ancillary infrastructure network in order to identify cascading and inter-related infrastructure issues. The project includes a “hazard identification” work package. Our group is analysing return periods and extents of river floods and coastal floods in EU countries under present and future climate. The investigation will also include flood defences and provide output for the risk analysis framework that is developed in the work package lead by TBM faculty of TU Delft. The GIS dataset of flood hazard will be complimentary to dataset created by other partners (precipitation, storms, forest fires, winter weather events and others). Our group was previously involved in: “New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe” ( MATRIX ) project (2010–2013). Our investigations included cascade effects in a multi-hazard approach and multi-type risk assessments. “Resilient and Sustainable Infrastructure Networks” ( RESIN ) project at UC Berkeley (2009–2011). In this project we have contributed to studying risks for interconnected infrastructures (levees, gas, power) in the Sacramento – San Joaquin delta in California.

River Basins

A river basin is a hydrological unit. All precipitation falling in this area will remain in the basin or will end up in the same river, going to the sea, if it does not evaporate. Alternative names for the some object are catchment or watershed. River basins are generally separated from each other by natural division lines along the highest points in an area. Groundwater may cross topographic boundaries, complicating the concept somewhat. From a hydrological point of view a river basin is the most logical unit to study hydrological processes and the water balance. The World Wildlife Fund has developed Hydrosheds , a tool to outline most watersheds on Earth. From a management point of view the river basin is also an important system. For example: extracting water from one part of the basin will influence the availability of water in other parts and water polluted upstream will flow downstream and may influence the health of people downstream. The unit of analysis for integrated water resource management will therefore also be the river basin. In practice, management units in many cases do not correspond with river basin units. Some 260 rivers around the world are located in more than one country. In many cases a river flows constitutes a border between countries or other administrative units. The different management units may have very different interests that may lead to conflicts. The European Commission has drawn up a directive, the Water Framework Directive, requiring policy development and planning to be done at a river basin level. This means that water management in the whole area, with all the interconnections, needs to be considered in its entirety. It does not mean that daily water management practice will need to be managed at that level, but cooperation is needed. The picture above shows the different river basins in Europe. Linear algebra and watershed logic It would be very tedious to determine the river basin or watershed area by tracing every drainage pathway the outlet to the topographic boundary. Fortunately, we can use some neat trick from linear algebra and graph theory to efficiently determine the area that drains through any given point. If we divide an area into elements and assign to each element only the element into which it drains, we can readily derive global watershed properties from this local information. All watershed software is based on these principles. A very simple example of six pixels is given to the right. Assume each circle is an area that all areas together fill (part of) a plane. Areas 1&2 drain into area 3, which drains into 5, etc. Such a system of nodes and links (or edges) is called a graph. This particular type of graph is called a "tree" because, well, it looks like a tree. We can develop an adjacency matrix, A, in which we enter a one in each cell (n,m) where area/node n drains into area/node m, and zeros where no connections exist. For our example, this would look like the matrix to the right. One could say that the ones indicate which node n (row) is one step removed from node m (column). We could also make a matrix, A' , that shows a one wherever two nodes are connected through two steps, and A'' for three steps: Through inspection, one can quickly check that A' = A 2 and A'' = A 3 . Remember that the product of two matrices, A × B , is formed by entering in each cell ( n , m ), the inproduct of the row n of A with and column m of B : In general, A × B ¹ B × A , so we distinguish pre-multiplication and post-multiplication. ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication ). The sum of these matrices, S =A+A 2 +A 3 , would in each row show the "downstream" areas and in the columns all "upstream" areas. In the case of a watershed, we would also like to include a "zero-th" step, the unity matrix, I , because each area drains also itself. Clearly, node 3 in our example drains 1,2, and 3. If we add I , we obtain the "watershed" matrix, S + I : So the water from node 1 flows through 1, 3,5 & 6. All nodes drain through node 6 or, in other words, form the watershed of 6. By summing the columns, we quickly find the watershed size (or drainage area) for each pixel: 1=>1, 2=>1, 3=>3, 4=>1, 5=>5, 6=>6. Interestingly, I + A+A 2 +...+A n = ( I - A ) -1 , which can easily be checked by pre-multiplying left and right with ( I - A ). This means that all we need to know is the adjacency matrix A and invert (I-A). In other words, we can derive the complete structure of the watershed by just looking at the local drainage directions . Practically, GIS software uses the above algorithm to determine watershed areas for each square area called a pixel, whereby the height of each pixel is given by a Digital Elevation Model such as Hydrosheds (see above). By cutting off pixels with a watershed area below a certain threshold, one obtains a drainage or river network. Similarly, one can quickly outline for any chosen pixel what the watershed area is. Sample application: Left topomap for the Volta Basin and surroundings in West Africa (GTOPO30), right the Volta River Basin Picture source: European Commission

Nanofluids: helping you harvest heat from the sun and fabricate your own microchips

Nanofluids: helping you harvest heat from the sun and fabricate your own microchips ‘In this cohesion project we’re doing fundamental ground work towards two completely different applications. The project is strengthening the contacts between our departments as well.’ What do systems that can harvest thermal energy from the sun have in common with inkjet printers that can print microscale chip-like features? Dr. Rene Pecnik (Dept. of Process and Energy) and Dr. Murali Ghatkesar (Dept. of Precision and Microsystems Engineering) found the answer to this question: both applications make use of fluids carrying minuscule particles of a billionth of a meter in size each, also known as nanofluids. Despite the differences between the two applications, the successful development of either requires in-depth understanding of the behaviour of nanofluids at extreme conditions, such as high pressures or temperatures. The researchers joined forces and set about studying these properties and showcasing their respective innovations in a cohesion project entitled "Solar energy <- Nanofluids -> Nanomanufacturing.” It’s an unconventional title for a project, admits Ghatkesar, ‘but we’re very happy with the results.’ Dr.ir. Rene Pecnik (Process & Energy) Dr. Murali Ghatkesar (Precision and Microsystems Engineering) Common interest The two researchers got talking during a University Teacher Qualification course at TU Delft. Pecnik: ‘The second module of this course consists of all participants giving a mini-lecture on the topic they teach to students. That’s how I got acquainted with Murali’s work’. Although they work on very different topics and focus on engineering challenges at different length scales, Ghatkesar and Pecnik share a common interest: nanofluids, which are fluids carrying particles of sizes on the scale of the nanometre (one billionth of a meter). ‘We found that we are facing similar challenges in dealing with such nanofluids. At about the same time, the possibility to apply for a cohesion project was advertised.’ 'Although we work on very different topics and focus on engineering challenges at different length scales, we are facing similar challenges in dealing with nanofluids’ High temperatures, high pressures While Pecnik needs nanofluids to collect and store heat from the sun, Murali pushes nanofluids through narrow channels to deposit nanoparticles on a surface in an inkjet-like process. In both cases, temperatures and pressures are higher than reference values for which the behaviour of the nanofluids is fully understood. ‘We both needed to know more about the fluid properties at those conditions, such as their viscosity, thermal conductivity and heat capacity. The cohesion project provided an excellent means to do foundational research, while also giving us the opportunity to move our respective ideas to a proof-of-principle stage. ‘The cohesion project provided an excellent means to do foundational research and move our respective ideas to a proof-of-principle stage’ Contacts between departments Pecnik: ‘In Dr. Mohammad Mehrali we found a postdoc specifically experienced in handling nanofluids and synthesising nanoparticles for energy applications. Over the course of the project, he successfully strengthened the contacts between our departments, as well as with researchers from other disciplines at TU Delft.’ Finding the right experimental equipment was tricky, says Ghatkesar, ‘but Mehrali was very persistent.’ ‘Our postdoc successfully strengthened the contacts between our departments, as well as with researchers from other disciplines at TU Delft’ Volumetric solar receivers Pecnik is working on harvesting heat from the sun, as a source of renewable energy. This is a complementary route to generating electricity from sunlight using photovoltaics. Sunlight is concentrated into a receiver containing a fluid, heating it up. This heat is either stored or used, for example to generate electricity. Compared to photovoltaics, which exploits only a narrow band of wavelengths, heat can be generated by the sunlight across the full spectrum. The key element of a system harvesting thermal energy from the sun is the solar collector, which absorbs the concentrated solar radiation, converts it into heat and transfers the heat to a heat transfer fluid. Since about 10 years, researchers are considering nanoparticles dispersed in the transfer fluid for this purpose. Due to their small size, nanoparticles allow much better heat transfer to the surrounding fluid. If the nanoparticles are dispersed in a high-pressure fluid, the efficiency of the conversion technique has the potential to be doubled. ‘It’s a highly promising and low-cost option compared to current systems,’ Pecnik summarises. ‘Using nanoparticles in volumetric solar receivers is a highly promising and low-cost option’ Graphene ‘As part of the cohesion project, we also came up with the idea to incorporate a graphene carrier sheet onto which the nanoparticles are placed.’ As graphene is an excellent thermal conductor while minimally obstructing the passage of sunlight, it further improves the efficiency of the heat-harvesting process. ‘All in all, we increased the power conversion efficiency from 30% (pure water) to 77% (water plus graphene plus nanoparticles), which is a significant result’. Nanomanufacturing At the same time, Ghatkesar was poised to realise an inkjet-like printer system capable of precisely depositing nanoparticles onto surfaces. Sharp needles, well-known from a widely used experimental technique called scanning-probe microscopy, are etched until a hollow channel extends to the tip of the needle. The hollow needle can be moved with nanometre accuracy. If a nanofluid is pushed through the channel and deposited on a surface, the moving needle will leave a dotted trail of nanoparticles. The final step is a thermal treatment, which causes the nanoparticles to fuse together. In this way, Ghatkesar aims to fabricate micro and nanometre-sized strips. These strips can be metallic, for use in microelectronics. They can also be built up from fused diamond nanoparticles, combining high mechanical durability with biological and chemical sensing capabilities. Table-top micro-nano-printer For Ghatkesar, there is much riding on the cohesion project. ‘I proposed the idea of printing micro/nanosystems before but lacked a proof of principle to obtain funding. Despite this setback, I really did not want to kill off the idea. The cohesion project allows me to obtain crucial initial results to give credibility to a larger research proposal.’ Looking ahead, he isn’t short of ambitions either. ‘I’d love to develop an affordable table-top system to fabricate microsystems, both for electronics and mechanics. Currently, the fabrication of such small-scale systems requires energy-intensive complex equipment in an expensive cleanroom environment, where levels of dust and other ambient conditions are tightly controlled to prevent contamination of the microsystems. For many users, this is too expensive. An inkjet-like printer could bring such fabrication capabilities to a much wider group of users.’ ' I’d love to develop an affordable table-top system to fabricate microsystems, both for electronics and mechanics’ Dr.ir. Rene Pecnik ( Dept. of Process & Control ) is associate professor in the area of fluid dynamics of energy systems. He obtained his PhD degree cum laude in 2007 from Graz University of Technology (Austria) after which he was postdoctoral researcher at Stanford University (US). His expertise is in the area of fluid mechanics, turbulence modelling and thermodynamics. Dr. Murali Ghatkesar ( Dept. of Precision and Microsystems Engineering ) graduated summa cum laude from the University of Basel in Switzerland. After that he worked among others at CalTech and the University of Virginia in the US. As assistant professor ‘Micro and Nano Engineering’ at the TU Delft he develops micro and nanotechnology-based tools to help solve intriguing problems in biology/chemistry and unravel some of the mysteries of nature at small scales. ME Cohesionprojects The cohesion projects were launched in 2014 based on an idea by Dean Theun Baller, the aim of which is to encourage interdisciplinary cooperation within the faculty. A good engineer, after all, is inherently good at working with others, and most innovations take place on the cutting edge of disciplines. The cohesion projects give young researchers the opportunity to ask for funding for projects, on the condition that they work together with colleagues within the faculty and outside their own discipline. Mechanical Engineering, Maritime Technology and Materials Science have proven to be extremely suitable for unexpected cross-overs with surprising outcomes.

Board of Editors

Board of Editors The TU Delft OPEN Publishing Board of Editors comprises of experts in their research fields and in publishing. The Board helps ensure the quality of our publications, and plays a key role in raising their impact and visibility. Board members embrace the philosophy of open publishing, and support and advise the Advisor Board of TU Delft OPEN Publishing in building editorial operations and strategies that best serve the TU Delft scholars community. The Board members: Review book and journals proposals Edit manuscripts Advise on reviewing policies Recommend new members Each editor will be invited to review/edit a maximum of 3 manuscripts and proposals a year. Editors Amin Askarinejad Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences | Geo-engineering | TU Delft, NL Bruno de Andrade Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment | Heritage & Values | TU Delft, NL Chiara Bisagni Faculty of AE| Aerospace Structures & Computational Mechanics | TU Delft, NL Maartje van den Bogaard Plant Pathology and Microbiology | School of Agriculture and Lifesciences | Iowa State University, US Geerten van de Kaa Faculty of TPM | Economics of Technology and Innovation | TU Delft, NL Oleg Krasnov Faculty of EEMCS | Microwave Sensing, Signals & Systems | TU Delft, NL Kaitai Liang Faculty of EEMCS | Cyber Security | TU Delft, NL Xavier Olive ONERA | Information Processing and Systems | Toulouse, France Areas of Expertise : Air Traffic Management, Machine Learning, Data visualisation, Programming languages. Saket Pande Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences | Water Resources | TU Delft, NL Bishnu Patra QuTech | Qubits and Quantum | TU Delft, NL Enrico Spinielli EUROCONTROL | Aviation Intelligence Unit | Brussels, Belgium Areas of Expertise: Air Traffic Management, Data visualization, Programming languages, Statistical Inference, Air Navigation Service Providers Operational Performance Evaluation. Junzi Sun Faculty of AE | Control & Simulation | TU Delft, NL Areas of Expertise: Air traffic management, Aircraft surveillance technologies, Aircraft performance and emission modeling, Trajectory optimization and prediction, Data science and AI for aviation. Phil Vardon Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences | Geo-engineering | TU Delft, NL Yung Yau Lingnan University | School of Graduate Studies and Department of Sociology & Social Policy | Hong Kong, China Areas of Expertise: Housing studies, Urban regeneration, Urban sociology Interested in joining? Are you interested in joining our Board of Editors and supporting TU Delft’s publishing initiative? Please fill in the form below. Our publishing officer will review your application and contact you via email within a week after your submission. Please note that we intend to publish the information you provided on this page (see other editors’ profiles below for reference), please let us know in the “Questions/Comments” field if you prefer otherwise.

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Tracing ancient settlements in Colombia with remote sensing

A team of the LDE alliance (Leiden University, TU Delft, and Erasmus University Rotterdam) asked whether it might be possible to search for signs of ancient settlements in the jungle with affordable remote sensing techniques. For an expedition in a Colombian dense forest, the team, including remote sensing expert Felix Dahle of TU Delft, joined forces with archaeologists and drone experts from Colombia. In mountainous forests, drones provide affordable access to areas that would otherwise be unreachable from the ground. A LiDAR laser scanner already proved its value in coastal observation . The big question was whether LiDAR could bypass the many treetops. Trees reflect the laser, so it was crucial to fly close so it found its way through the foliage. The team mounted a highly portable LiDAR laser scanner to a drone and went on expedition nearby ancient terraces of the Tairona culture in the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta. “We had to find the sweet spot. Close to the archaeological sites and still secure above the canopy”, says Felix Dahle. And it passed the test. The LiDAR laser scanner create a point cloud and a detailed 3D model of the landscape. “We were able to detect ancient terraces in the jungle. We discovered that we can scan through the forest when it is not too dense, but some areas remained unfathomable. We could also distinguish several types of vegetation, which might be of great use too to find undiscovered archaeological sites.”

TU Delft jointly wins in XPRIZE Rainforest competition in Brazil

TU Delft jointly wins in the XPRIZE Rainforest competition in the Amazon, Brazil Imagine using rapid and autonomous robot technology for research into the green and humid lungs of our planet; our global rainforests. Drones that autonomously deploy eDNA samplers and canopy rafts uncover the rich biodiversity of these complex ecosystems while revealing the effects of human activity on nature and climate change. On November 15, 2024, after five years of intensive research and competition, the ETHBiodivX team, which included TU Delft Aerospace researchers Salua Hamaza and Georg Strunck, achieved an outstanding milestone: winning the XPRIZE Rainforest Bonus Prize for outstanding effort in co-developing inclusive technology for nature conservation. The goal: create automated technology and methods to gain near real-time insights about biodiversity – providing necessary data that can inform conservation action and policy, support sustainable bioeconomies, and empower Indigenous Peoples and local communities who are the primary protectors and knowledge holders of the planet’s tropical rainforests. The ETHBiodivX team, made of experts in Robotics, eDNA, and Data Insights, is tackling the massive challenge of automating and streamlining the way we monitor ecosystems. Leading the Robotics division, a collaboration between TU Delft’s Prof. Salua Hamaza, ETH Zurich’s Prof. Stefano Mintchev and Aarhus University’s Profs. Claus Melvad and Toke Thomas Høye, is developing cutting-edge robotic solutions to gather ecology and biology data autonomously. “We faced the immense challenge of deploying robots in the wild -- and not just any outdoor environment but one of the most demanding and uncharted: the wet rainforests. This required extraordinary efforts to ensure robustness and reliability, pushing the boundaries of what the hardware could achieve for autonomous data collection of images, sounds, and eDNA, in the Amazon” says prof. Hamaza. “Ultimately, this technology will be available to Indigenous communities as a tool to better understand the forest's ongoing changes in biodiversity, which provide essential resources as food and shelter to the locals.” . . . .

Students Amos Yusuf, Mick Dam & Bas Brouwer winners of Mekel Prize 2024

Master students Amos Yusuf, from the ME faculty, Mick Dam, from the EEMCS faculty, and graduate Bas Brouwer have won the Mekel Prize 2024 for the best extra scientific activity at TU Delft: the development of an initiative that brings master students into the classroom teaching sciences to the younger generations. The prize was ceremonially awarded by prof Tim van den Hagen on 13 November after the Van Hasselt Lecture at the Prinsenhof, Delft. They received a statue of Professor Jan Mekel and 1.500,- to spend on their project. Insights into climate change are being openly doubted. Funding for important educational efforts and research are being withdrawn. Short clips – so called “reels” – on Youtube and TikTok threaten to simplify complex political and social problems. AI fakes befuddle what is true and what is not. The voices of science that contribute to those discussion with modesty, careful argument and scepticism, are drowned in noise. This poses a threat for universities like TU Delft, who strive to increase student numbers, who benefit from diverse student populations and aim to pass on their knowledge and scientific virtues to the next generation. It is, therefore, alarming that student enrolments to Bachelor and Master Programs at TU Delft have declined in the past year. Students in front of the class The project is aimed to make the sciences more appealing to the next generation. They have identified the problem that students tend miss out on the opportunity of entering a higher education trajectory in the Beta sciences – because they have a wrong picture of such education. In their mind, they depict it as boring and dry. In his pilot lecture at the Stanislas VMBO in Delft, Amos Yusuf has successfully challenged this image. He shared his enthusiasm for the field of robotics and presented himself as a positive role model to the pupils. And in return the excitement of the high school students is palpable in the videos and pictures from the day. The spark of science fills their eyes. Bas Brouwer Mick Dam are the founders of NUVO – the platform that facilitates the engagement of Master Students in high school education in Delft Their efforts offer TU Delft Master Students a valuable learning moment: By sharing insights from their fields with pupils at high school in an educational setting, our students can find identify their own misunderstandings of their subject, learn to speak in front of non-scientific audiences and peak into education as a work field they themselves might not have considered. An extraordinary commitment According to the Mekel jury, the project scored well on all the criteria (risk mitigation, inclusiveness, transparency and societal relevance). However, it was the extraordinary commitment of Amos who was fully immersed during his Master Project and the efforts of Brouwer and Dam that brought together teaching and research which is integral to academic culture that made the project stand out. About the Mekel Prize The Mekel Prize will be awarded to the most socially responsible research project or extra-scientific activity (e.g. founding of an NGO or organization, an initiative or realization of an event or other impactful project) by an employee or group of employees of TU Delft – projects that showcase in an outstanding fashion that they have been committed from the beginning to relevant moral and societal values and have been aware of and tried to mitigate as much as possible in innovative ways the risks involved in their research. The award recognizes such efforts and wants to encourage the responsible development of science and technology at TU Delft in the future. For furthermore information About the project: https://www.de-nuvo.nl/video-robotica-pilot/ About the Mekel Prize: https://www.tudelft.nl/en/tpm/our-faculty/departments/values-technology-and-innovation/sections/ethics-philosophy-of-technology/mekel-prize

New catheter technology promises safer and more efficient treatment of blood vessels

Each year, more than 200 million catheters are used worldwide to treat vascular diseases, including heart disease and artery stenosis. When navigating into blood vessels, friction between the catheter and the vessel wall can cause major complications. With a new innovative catheter technology, Mostafa Atalla and colleagues can change the friction from having grip to completely slippery with the flick of a switch. Their design improves the safety and efficiency of endovascular procedures. The findings have been published in IEEE. Catheter with variable friction The prototype of the new catheter features advanced friction control modules to precisely control the friction between the catheter and the vessel wall. The friction is modulated via ultrasonic vibrations, which overpressure the thin fluid layer. This innovative variable friction technology makes it possible to switch between low friction for smooth navigation through the vessel and high friction for optimal stability during the procedure. In a proof-of-concept, Atalla and his team show that the prototype significantly reduces friction, averaging 60% on rigid surfaces and 11% on soft surfaces. Experiments on animal aortic tissue confirm the promising results of this technology and its potential for medical applications. Fully assembled catheters The researchers tested the prototype during friction experiments on different tissue types. They are also investigating how the technology can be applied to other procedures, such as bowel interventions. More information Publicatie DOI : 10.1109/TMRB.2024.3464672 Toward Variable-Friction Catheters Using Ultrasonic Lubrication | IEEE Journals & Magazine | IEEE Xplore Mostafa Atalla: m.a.a.atalla@tudelft.nl Aimee Sakes: a.sakes@tudelft.nl Michaël Wiertlewski: m.wiertlewski@tudelft.nl Would you like to know more and/or attend a demonstration of the prototype please contact me: Fien Bosman, press officer Health TU Delft: f.j.bosman@tudelft.nl/ 0624953733