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[SEJ] Roger Cooke: Convolutions of Continuous Ranked Probability Scores: comparison with the classical model.

Scoring rules were introduced by de Finetti in 1937 as tools for rewarding honesty in eliciting subjective probabilities: An expert receives score as a function of his/her probability assessment and the realization. The score is strictly proper if the expert maximizes (for negatively sensed rules, minimizes) his/her expected score, per variable, by and only by stating his/her true belief. Scoring rules were not designed for evaluating or combining experts; indeed, rewarding honesty is not the same as rewarding quality. A few examples illustrate this difference. Attention then focuses on Continuous Ranked Probability Scores, a continuous version of the Brier score.  We introduce a scale invariant version of this score. Under the hypothesis that samples are independently drawn from the expert’s subjective distribution we derive its sampling distribution and also the distributions of sums of independent scores. The classical model uses asymptotically proper scoring rules applied to sets of variables based on the standard multinomial chi square test.. These two approaches are compared using the dataset of 49 studies with 526 experts published in 2021.

Making the Circular Built Environment a Reality: A Call for Collaboration

Join us on 6 July at the Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment for a public debate on transitioning to a circular built environment.

EJ Seminar Archives

This the archive page for our ongoing seminar in expert judgment series.

Discrete Mathematics & Optimization

Discrete Mathematics and Optimization provides the mathematical tools required for the analysis and solution of problems that are of a combinatorial nature. Such problems often have origins in (pure) mathematics, adjacent areas like computer science and quantum physics, or practical applications such as logistics. The specialisation has a strong theoretical component, but also offers the opportunity to look into real-life applications in the field of (healthcare) logistics, machine learning, energy etc. We work on: mixed integer linear programming convex geometry and optimization combinatorial optimization semidefinite programming discrete and computational geometry geometry of lattices algorithms and complexity robust optimization / optimization under uncertainty extremal combinatorics finite geometry quantum optimization quantum error correction Education Are you looking for BSc or MSc thesis projects? Click here for more information! Publications People Seminars The Discrete Mathematics and Optimization seminar occurs regularly on Fridays. Topics can be theoretical or applied in nature, ranging anywhere from unpolished ideas and interesting problems to published results.

The Swiss Army knife of complex socio-technical issues

Isabelle van Schilt started her BSc Technische Bestuurskunde ten years ago and is now pursuing her PhD at the faculty of TPM. During her student years, she played an active role in the study association Curius and did a research visit at the prestigious MIT. These experiences proved immensely valuable to her current work as a researcher and made her see TB in a different light. "What we do here is unique."

PowerWeb Lecture: “Unlocking the DER ‘coordination dividend’: Constructing stakeholder consensus on the common good outcomes of DER asset coordination.”

PowerWeb Lecture: “Unlocking the DER ‘coordination dividend’: Constructing stakeholder consensus on the common good outcomes of DER asset coordination.” 13 June 2023 12:45 till 13:30 - Location: Faculty of EWI, Mekelweg 4 (Chip Hall) | Add to my calendar Practical information By: David Shipworth, Professor of Energy and the Built Environment at the UCL Energy Institute Date: Tuesday 13 June 2023 Time: 12:45-13:30 (free lunch from 12:15) Location: Faculty of EWI, Mekelweg 4 (Chip Hall) Moderator: Dr Francesco Lombardi Register here: registration form . Abstract There is good evidence of a ‘coordination dividend’ in power systems with high levels of distributed energy resources which depends on the coordination of those resources towards agreed common-good objectives. This lecture reviews mechanisms for coordination of both privately held and community owned DER assets, from direct power-systems control - through legal contracts and market mechanisms - to voluntary agreements, and the comparative risks and benefits of using each to realise this ‘coordination dividend’. It then focuses on the challenge of multiple and often conflicting individual and collective socially good outcomes from such asset coordination, taking a complex systems perspective to consider how conflicting constraints arising from multiple objectives (e.g. individual vs. community financial benefits; carbon mitigation; power system support) can lead to system ‘frustration’ and sub-optimal outcomes. From this perspective, resolving such conflicting constraints can lead to better system level outcomes. One mechanism to do this is through extensions of the companion modelling approach (Étienne 2014) developed in the field of environmental resource management. Companion modelling uses empirical social research to create multiple system representations through which different stakeholder groups provide real uses’ responses to inform agent based models of distributed resource management. These offer an approach to construction of empirically grounded computer simulations of DER owners’ responses under different market and regulatory environments. Additionally, through use of behavioural science methods embedded in stakeholder consultation and co-design processes, they constitute a consensus forming mechanism through which stakeholders can converge on common good objectives for DER asset-rich power systems to deliver. This lecture draws on discrete areas of research strength across TU Delft and UCL into a possible programme of research collaboration on the implementation of high DER asset decarbonised electrical power systems. Short bio of the presenter: David Shipworth is Professor of Energy and the Built Environment at the UCL Energy Institute and Chair of the User-Centred Energy SystemsTechnology Collaboration Programme by the International Energy Agency. His research focuses on ways to provide demand flexibility within the energy system and roles of consumers, regulators, and buildings in delivering these. He has a particular interest in mechanisms of distributed energy resource asset coordination including local energy trading, time of use tariffs, and home energy management systems. He speaks and consults widely in the UK and internationally on local energy trading - particularly on the design, conduct and evaluation of field trials for testing the consumer acceptability and response to different flexibility product offerings.

DMO Seminar Archives

Founders to Founders Networking Event

Founders to Founders Networking Event 12 June 2023 18:00 till 20:00 - Location: London - By: Alumni Relations | Add to my calendar London Tech Week is the perfect time for hosting the first ever ‘founders meet founders’ networking event in London that will bring UK and Netherlands based alumni entrepreneurs together to celebrate local successes as well as stimulate useful contacts with each other. Opening the gathering is TUD alumnus and fintech entrepreneur Stijn Pieper (see bio below) who from the rooftop DJ station will talk about experiences as a founder in both Zurich and London, as well as wisdom he wish he could share in the past with his younger entrepreneur self. This event takes place on Monday June 12th from 6:00 PM till 8:00 PM at the rooftop of Bar Elba Waterloo (walking distance from London Tech Week) and is being hosted by the alumni offices of the four technical universities of the Netherlands in collaboration with the 4TU.Federation and the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO). The gathering is included in a special programme being organized as part of a Dutch delegation visiting the city for the 2023 London Tech Week. During the evening you can interact with alumni startup founders from a diverse range of sectors like everything digital, fintech, edtech, HRtech, multiverse, crypto, AI, machine learning, and more! On the NL side, the present TUD/TUe/UT/WUR startups will include: Integer Technologies , Mithra-Ai , Flawless Workflow , CodeGlass , Lexius , Perciv.ai , APTA Tech & Sourcer . This is a unique opportunity for 4TU alumni from London and the Netherlands to mix with like-minded entrepreneurs, industry leaders, and innovators. Whether you are looking to expand your professional network, seek potential partnerships, or simply gain insights from (experienced) founders, this event promises to be an evening of inspiration and valuable connections. Registration Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to connect with like-minded individuals and tap into the thriving Dutch startup scene. Please register to secure your spot. Spaces are limited, so make sure to reserve your place early! Can’t make it eventually? Let us know so we can give the spot to someone else. We look forward to welcoming you at the Founders-to-Founders Networking Event in London and witnessing the magic that unfolds when brilliant minds come together. Note that all registrations details are processed by TU Delft Alumni Relations. REGISTER REGISTER Programme 6:00 PM - 6:30 PM Badges & pre drinks/bites 6:30 PM - 6:40 PM Welcome words 6:40 PM - 6:55 PM Opening ‘DJ’ talk by TUD alumnus Stijn Pieper 6:55 PM - 7:10 PM Leverage our founder community ‘Q&A’ 7:10 PM - 8:00 PM Networking time Location Bar Elba Waterloo - Rooftop bar 111 Waterloo Road, London Bar Elba Waterloo - Rooftop bar 111 Waterloo Road, London Speakers Stijn Pieper Stijn Pieper is a fintech entrepreneur and product executive. As the founder of Advanon, he successfully funded thousands of businesses with over €400 million, with offices in Zurich and Berlin. After exiting his business, he took on the role as product lead for Revolut, to build the first global financial superapp at Revolut Business, attracting over half a million business customers across 39 markets with £110 billion in transactions. As the product executive at Uncapped, he built another digital bank providing investments ranging from £10k to £4 million in tech companies across the UK, US, and Europe. With degrees from TU Delft, Stijn started his career in the Netherlands at ING, the Dutch National Bank, and Google. Stijn's journey is marked by a relentless drive for fintech innovation and brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the table, making him a valuable resource for navigating the European start-up ecosystems. Go to previous item Go to next item About 4TU. The four universities of technology in the Netherlands - TU Delft, University of Twente, Wageningen University and TU Eindhoven - are united in the 4TU.Federation. 4TU aims to boost and pool technical expertise. The universities of technology plan to educate and deliver plenty of excellent engineers and technological designers, to realise internationally-renowned and societally-relevant research and to promote cooperation between research institutes, businesses and public organisations. About the Dutch mission at the London Tech Week A delegation of over 80 people, led by RVO (Netherlands Enterprice Agency) and 4TU.Federation (partnership of the 4 Dutch technical universities), will visit the London Tech Week. This group consists of nearly 20 Dutch startups from a diverse range of sectors, including everything digital, fintech, edtech, HRtech, multiverse, crypto, AI, machine learning, and more. Questions? Anouk Dijkstal alumnirelations@tudelft.nl alumni.tudelft.nl

Haus Rauch

Schlins, Austria

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[SEJ] Roger Cooke: Convolutions of Continuous Ranked Probability Scores: comparison with the classical model.

Scoring rules were introduced by de Finetti in 1937 as tools for rewarding honesty in eliciting subjective probabilities: An expert receives score as a function of his/her probability assessment and the realization. The score is strictly proper if the expert maximizes (for negatively sensed rules, minimizes) his/her expected score, per variable, by and only by stating his/her true belief. Scoring rules were not designed for evaluating or combining experts; indeed, rewarding honesty is not the same as rewarding quality. A few examples illustrate this difference. Attention then focuses on Continuous Ranked Probability Scores, a continuous version of the Brier score.  We introduce a scale invariant version of this score. Under the hypothesis that samples are independently drawn from the expert’s subjective distribution we derive its sampling distribution and also the distributions of sums of independent scores. The classical model uses asymptotically proper scoring rules applied to sets of variables based on the standard multinomial chi square test.. These two approaches are compared using the dataset of 49 studies with 526 experts published in 2021.

Making the Circular Built Environment a Reality: A Call for Collaboration

Join us on 6 July at the Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment for a public debate on transitioning to a circular built environment.

EJ Seminar Archives

This the archive page for our ongoing seminar in expert judgment series.

Discrete Mathematics & Optimization

Discrete Mathematics and Optimization provides the mathematical tools required for the analysis and solution of problems that are of a combinatorial nature. Such problems often have origins in (pure) mathematics, adjacent areas like computer science and quantum physics, or practical applications such as logistics. The specialisation has a strong theoretical component, but also offers the opportunity to look into real-life applications in the field of (healthcare) logistics, machine learning, energy etc. We work on: mixed integer linear programming convex geometry and optimization combinatorial optimization semidefinite programming discrete and computational geometry geometry of lattices algorithms and complexity robust optimization / optimization under uncertainty extremal combinatorics finite geometry quantum optimization quantum error correction Education Are you looking for BSc or MSc thesis projects? Click here for more information! Publications People Seminars The Discrete Mathematics and Optimization seminar occurs regularly on Fridays. Topics can be theoretical or applied in nature, ranging anywhere from unpolished ideas and interesting problems to published results.

The Swiss Army knife of complex socio-technical issues

Isabelle van Schilt started her BSc Technische Bestuurskunde ten years ago and is now pursuing her PhD at the faculty of TPM. During her student years, she played an active role in the study association Curius and did a research visit at the prestigious MIT. These experiences proved immensely valuable to her current work as a researcher and made her see TB in a different light. "What we do here is unique."

PowerWeb Lecture: “Unlocking the DER ‘coordination dividend’: Constructing stakeholder consensus on the common good outcomes of DER asset coordination.”

PowerWeb Lecture: “Unlocking the DER ‘coordination dividend’: Constructing stakeholder consensus on the common good outcomes of DER asset coordination.” 13 June 2023 12:45 till 13:30 - Location: Faculty of EWI, Mekelweg 4 (Chip Hall) | Add to my calendar Practical information By: David Shipworth, Professor of Energy and the Built Environment at the UCL Energy Institute Date: Tuesday 13 June 2023 Time: 12:45-13:30 (free lunch from 12:15) Location: Faculty of EWI, Mekelweg 4 (Chip Hall) Moderator: Dr Francesco Lombardi Register here: registration form . Abstract There is good evidence of a ‘coordination dividend’ in power systems with high levels of distributed energy resources which depends on the coordination of those resources towards agreed common-good objectives. This lecture reviews mechanisms for coordination of both privately held and community owned DER assets, from direct power-systems control - through legal contracts and market mechanisms - to voluntary agreements, and the comparative risks and benefits of using each to realise this ‘coordination dividend’. It then focuses on the challenge of multiple and often conflicting individual and collective socially good outcomes from such asset coordination, taking a complex systems perspective to consider how conflicting constraints arising from multiple objectives (e.g. individual vs. community financial benefits; carbon mitigation; power system support) can lead to system ‘frustration’ and sub-optimal outcomes. From this perspective, resolving such conflicting constraints can lead to better system level outcomes. One mechanism to do this is through extensions of the companion modelling approach (Étienne 2014) developed in the field of environmental resource management. Companion modelling uses empirical social research to create multiple system representations through which different stakeholder groups provide real uses’ responses to inform agent based models of distributed resource management. These offer an approach to construction of empirically grounded computer simulations of DER owners’ responses under different market and regulatory environments. Additionally, through use of behavioural science methods embedded in stakeholder consultation and co-design processes, they constitute a consensus forming mechanism through which stakeholders can converge on common good objectives for DER asset-rich power systems to deliver. This lecture draws on discrete areas of research strength across TU Delft and UCL into a possible programme of research collaboration on the implementation of high DER asset decarbonised electrical power systems. Short bio of the presenter: David Shipworth is Professor of Energy and the Built Environment at the UCL Energy Institute and Chair of the User-Centred Energy SystemsTechnology Collaboration Programme by the International Energy Agency. His research focuses on ways to provide demand flexibility within the energy system and roles of consumers, regulators, and buildings in delivering these. He has a particular interest in mechanisms of distributed energy resource asset coordination including local energy trading, time of use tariffs, and home energy management systems. He speaks and consults widely in the UK and internationally on local energy trading - particularly on the design, conduct and evaluation of field trials for testing the consumer acceptability and response to different flexibility product offerings.

DMO Seminar Archives

Founders to Founders Networking Event

Founders to Founders Networking Event 12 June 2023 18:00 till 20:00 - Location: London - By: Alumni Relations | Add to my calendar London Tech Week is the perfect time for hosting the first ever ‘founders meet founders’ networking event in London that will bring UK and Netherlands based alumni entrepreneurs together to celebrate local successes as well as stimulate useful contacts with each other. Opening the gathering is TUD alumnus and fintech entrepreneur Stijn Pieper (see bio below) who from the rooftop DJ station will talk about experiences as a founder in both Zurich and London, as well as wisdom he wish he could share in the past with his younger entrepreneur self. This event takes place on Monday June 12th from 6:00 PM till 8:00 PM at the rooftop of Bar Elba Waterloo (walking distance from London Tech Week) and is being hosted by the alumni offices of the four technical universities of the Netherlands in collaboration with the 4TU.Federation and the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO). The gathering is included in a special programme being organized as part of a Dutch delegation visiting the city for the 2023 London Tech Week. During the evening you can interact with alumni startup founders from a diverse range of sectors like everything digital, fintech, edtech, HRtech, multiverse, crypto, AI, machine learning, and more! On the NL side, the present TUD/TUe/UT/WUR startups will include: Integer Technologies , Mithra-Ai , Flawless Workflow , CodeGlass , Lexius , Perciv.ai , APTA Tech & Sourcer . This is a unique opportunity for 4TU alumni from London and the Netherlands to mix with like-minded entrepreneurs, industry leaders, and innovators. Whether you are looking to expand your professional network, seek potential partnerships, or simply gain insights from (experienced) founders, this event promises to be an evening of inspiration and valuable connections. Registration Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to connect with like-minded individuals and tap into the thriving Dutch startup scene. Please register to secure your spot. Spaces are limited, so make sure to reserve your place early! Can’t make it eventually? Let us know so we can give the spot to someone else. We look forward to welcoming you at the Founders-to-Founders Networking Event in London and witnessing the magic that unfolds when brilliant minds come together. Note that all registrations details are processed by TU Delft Alumni Relations. REGISTER REGISTER Programme 6:00 PM - 6:30 PM Badges & pre drinks/bites 6:30 PM - 6:40 PM Welcome words 6:40 PM - 6:55 PM Opening ‘DJ’ talk by TUD alumnus Stijn Pieper 6:55 PM - 7:10 PM Leverage our founder community ‘Q&A’ 7:10 PM - 8:00 PM Networking time Location Bar Elba Waterloo - Rooftop bar 111 Waterloo Road, London Bar Elba Waterloo - Rooftop bar 111 Waterloo Road, London Speakers Stijn Pieper Stijn Pieper is a fintech entrepreneur and product executive. As the founder of Advanon, he successfully funded thousands of businesses with over €400 million, with offices in Zurich and Berlin. After exiting his business, he took on the role as product lead for Revolut, to build the first global financial superapp at Revolut Business, attracting over half a million business customers across 39 markets with £110 billion in transactions. As the product executive at Uncapped, he built another digital bank providing investments ranging from £10k to £4 million in tech companies across the UK, US, and Europe. With degrees from TU Delft, Stijn started his career in the Netherlands at ING, the Dutch National Bank, and Google. Stijn's journey is marked by a relentless drive for fintech innovation and brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to the table, making him a valuable resource for navigating the European start-up ecosystems. Go to previous item Go to next item About 4TU. The four universities of technology in the Netherlands - TU Delft, University of Twente, Wageningen University and TU Eindhoven - are united in the 4TU.Federation. 4TU aims to boost and pool technical expertise. The universities of technology plan to educate and deliver plenty of excellent engineers and technological designers, to realise internationally-renowned and societally-relevant research and to promote cooperation between research institutes, businesses and public organisations. About the Dutch mission at the London Tech Week A delegation of over 80 people, led by RVO (Netherlands Enterprice Agency) and 4TU.Federation (partnership of the 4 Dutch technical universities), will visit the London Tech Week. This group consists of nearly 20 Dutch startups from a diverse range of sectors, including everything digital, fintech, edtech, HRtech, multiverse, crypto, AI, machine learning, and more. Questions? Anouk Dijkstal alumnirelations@tudelft.nl alumni.tudelft.nl

Haus Rauch

Schlins, Austria
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What trees teach us about sustainable production of materials

Trees are excellent teachers when it comes to making materials for load-bearing structures with as little resources and energy as possible. One of their secrets? When a tree grows, the direction of the wood grain adapts itself to fit the load that part of the tree is going to bear.

Exhale Sluitingsweek: A week of free events to say goodbye to Exhale and cosy up for Winter

De allerlaatste Exhale Week vindt plaats van 25 november tot 1 december en staat volledig in het teken van afscheid nemen van Exhale en het omarmen van de winter.

TIL student Laura Drechsel wins Q-Park thesis award

TIL student Laura Drechsel wins the 2024 Q-Park Student Award with her thesis called: Stories of Aging and Access - Exploring capabilities and challenges of accessibility for urban elderly through microstories. Her award-winning thesis can be found here .

TU Delft jointly wins XPRIZE Rainforest drone competition in Brazil

TU Delft jointly wins in the XPRIZE Rainforest competition in the Amazon, Brazil Imagine using rapid and autonomous robot technology for research into the green and humid lungs of our planet; our global rainforests. Drones that autonomously deploy eDNA samplers and canopy rafts uncover the rich biodiversity of these complex ecosystems while revealing the effects of human activity on nature and climate change. On November 15, 2024, after five years of intensive research and competition, the ETHBiodivX team, which included TU Delft Aerospace researchers Salua Hamaza and Georg Strunck, achieved an outstanding milestone: winning the XPRIZE Rainforest Bonus Prize for outstanding effort in co-developing inclusive technology for nature conservation. The goal: create automated technology and methods to gain near real-time insights about biodiversity – providing necessary data that can inform conservation action and policy, support sustainable bioeconomies, and empower Indigenous Peoples and local communities who are the primary protectors and knowledge holders of the planet’s tropical rainforests. The ETHBiodivX team, made of experts in Robotics, eDNA, and Data Insights, is tackling the massive challenge of automating and streamlining the way we monitor ecosystems. Leading the Robotics division, a collaboration between TU Delft’s Prof. Salua Hamaza, ETH Zurich’s Prof. Stefano Mintchev and Aarhus University’s Profs. Claus Melvad and Toke Thomas Høye, is developing cutting-edge robotic solutions to gather ecology and biology data autonomously. “We faced the immense challenge of deploying robots in the wild -- and not just any outdoor environment but one of the most demanding and uncharted: the wet rainforests. This required extraordinary efforts to ensure robustness and reliability, pushing the boundaries of what the hardware could achieve for autonomous data collection of images, sounds, and eDNA, in the Amazon” says prof. Hamaza. “Ultimately, this technology will be available to Indigenous communities as a tool to better understand the forest's ongoing changes in biodiversity, which provide essential resources as food and shelter to the locals.” . . . .

Moving the Closet

You simply cannot miss it, it is big and magenta: the Pink Closet . On 12 November 2024 the Pink Closet will head to the Main Hall of the TU Delft Library for the first time! The Pink Closet will take its place at the Nook, where it will feature as part of the Studium Generale programme on loneliness. More information on events that coincide with and incorporate the Pink Closet at TU Delft Library will soon be available on the website of Studium Generale .

Green ammonia remains a challenge, but researchers make significant progress

The production of ammonia, essential for fertiliser production, is responsible for almost 1.5% of global carbon emissions. This needs to be greener, which is why researchers have been looking for sustainable alternatives for years.

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